A Systematic Assessment of National Under-5 Mortality Rate by Place of Residence for 109 Countries


The progress in reducing the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) since 1990 has been remarkable but uneven within countries between urban and rural populations. While trend U5MR estimates have been published frequently, an analysis of U5MR by urban and rural area has not been available across countries over time. In this paper, we provide annual estimates of U5MR among urban residence for 109 countries from 1990 to 2018 using a Bayesian time series model and assess the corresponding uncertainty. The analyses are based on an extensive database complied from surveys (including DHS, MICS, RHS, PAPFAM, PAPCHILD), censuses, and vital registration system. We present results for selected countries and identify country-years with the highest disparities in U5MR between urban area and national level.

In Population Association of America Annual Meeting

I gave an oral presentation for this conference paper on Apr 23rd, 2020, in the 2020 Population Association of America Annual Meeting (virtual due to COVID19), Washington, DC, USA.

Please cite the linked slides as:

Chao, Fengqing. 2020. “Under-5 Mortality Rate Estimation by Place of Residence (slides for PAA 2020)". figshare. doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.12403931.

Fengqing Chao
Research Scientist

My research interests include statistical demography, global health, Bayesian modeling, and time series analysis.