time series models

Estimating and Projecting Disparities in Pre- and Post-natal Survival using Bayesian Methods

It is crucial to monitor demographic and global health indicators accurately in order to optimize resource allocation. This is especially so in developing countries where the improvement of these health indicators is most needed. However, estimating …

Scenario-Based Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of the Sex Ratio at Birth and Missing Female Births

We describe a method for probabilistic scenario-based projection of the sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female live births) for all countries, with a focus on SRB imbalance due to sex-selective abortion till 2100.

A Systematic Assessment of National Under-5 Mortality Rate by Place of Residence for 109 Countries

The progress in reducing the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) since 1990 has been remarkable but uneven within countries between urban and rural populations. While trend U5MR estimates have been published frequently, an analysis of U5MR by urban and …

National and regional under-5 mortality rate by economic status for low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic assessment

For all low-income and middle-income countries (excluding China) combined, the absolute disparities in under-5 mortality rate between the poorest and richest households have narrowed significantly since 1990, whereas the relative differences have …

Web appendix: National and regional under-5 mortality rate by economic status for low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic assessment

This web appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. The journal post it as supplied by the authors. Supplement to: Chao F, You D, Pedersen J, Hug L, Alkema L.

A Systematic Assessment of National, and Regional Under-Five Mortality Rate by Wealth Quintiles and Identification of Countries with Outlying Levels Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Time Series Model

National-level estimates of the under-five mortality rate (U5MR) may mask disparities at the subnational level. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to assess disparities in the U5MR by household-level socioeconomic status (measured …

National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment

Important differences exist between boys and girls with respect to survival up to the age of 5 years. Survival chances tend to improve more rapidly for girls compared with boys as total mortality decreases, with a reversal of this trend at very low …

Supplementary appendix: National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment

This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. The journal post it as supplied by the authors. Supplement to: Alkema L, Chao F, You D, Pedersen J, Sawyer CC.

Gender Differences in Infant and Child Mortality: Estimation of Sex-Specific Mortality and an Assessment of Excess Female Deaths

Monitoring of sex-specific mortality up to age five for all countries is challenging because of issues with data availability and quality. Moreover, sex ratios are expected to vary with under-five mortality, which makes it challenging to define …

Gender differences in infant and child mortality: Estimation and identification of countries with outlying levels or trends

Under natural circumstances, the ratio of the male to female under-five mortality rate is greater than one. However, deprivation of girls' access to health care or proper nutrition could lead to distorted ratios of under-five mortality. Monitoring of …